FOXBORO - When it comes down to the critical decision of kicking or sticking, Patriots coach Bill Belichick could list hundreds of factors, some more important than others. But at a higher frequency than all but five teams in the NFL, the Patriots are going for it on fourth down. ``It's what you feel like gives your team the best chance to win based on all the factors at that juncture,'' Belichick said. ``That's the way it is with every decision.''
The topic first reached public consciousness after Belichick famously went for it, and lost, on fourth-and-2 against the Colts. It was hotly debated by fans, pundits and statisticians.
In Sunday's 22-21 loss to the Dolphins, the debate was regarding the call to forgo the field goal and go for it on fourth-and-1 from the Miami 6 with a 14-7 lead in the second quarter. Sammy Morris was stuffed, and the Dolphins turned it into a field goal.
The Patriots have eight conversions on 16 official attempts on fourth down this season, with another would-be conversion negated by a penalty. That 50 percent success rate is down from their mark on fourth downs in 2007 (71 percent) and 2008 (77 percent).
Since Belichick's call against the Colts, statisticians emerged to say the move made sense by the numbers. Don't count Belichick among those who listen.
``To me, the decisions are based on the game that you're in, and all of the situations that are specific to that game,'' he said. ``To me, it's not based on some statistical study from some games that we weren't a part of.''
After the Colts game, some believed the call was a shot at the defense. Yesterday, running back Laurence Maroney said it is just the opposite.
``Shows that coach has confidence in his offense,'' Maroney said, ``confidence in his running game, and essentially has confidence in me that I can pick this up on fourth-and-short (if my number is called).''
Yet when it backfires, momentum swings violently. Morris said execution in the short-yardage game can improve.
``Just one of those things that can be more consistent to help us win games,'' he said.
Fourth-down floundering
The Pats have gone for it on fourth down 17 times this season and hit on eight of them, with one would-be conversion negated because of a penalty. That's down from their success rate of 77 percent in 2008 and 71 percent in 2007. Here is a breakdown:
(See microfilm or .pdf for graphic)
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